Luck has a good deal to do with success in business. Not superstitious luck, as found in baseball rituals, but luck as chance, accident and coincidence.
Though the objective of golf is to get the ball in each hole in as few strokes as possible, a hole-in-one yields jubilant dismay.
Experience has taught us that the farther we are away from the hole, the odds of sinking the ball get exponentially smaller. Too many things have to go right, all at the same time.
Though some of these things are within our control, the smallest variations in body position, muscle firing, angle of the club face to the ball, geometry of the swing increase the likelihood of a missing the mark. Distance magnifies the slightest error.
Then there are the things beyond our control. Temperature, humidity, and air currents all seemingly conspire to thwart our best efforts. Even if we could make instantaneous physical adjustments as we swing the club, conditions can change as the ball takes flight.
So, we bring our skill and experience together at one moment, make our best guess to adjust for conditions, go for it, and hope for the best.
It is no different in business planning.
By the time the final version of the plan has been written and approved, its shelf life is already nearing the stale date – if not past it. Most of the decisions that underpin the plan – things we’d like to be sure of – are unknowable. We know what they’re likely to be over a range, but we can’t pinpoint them.
So, we bring collective managerial experience and know-how to bear.
Assumptions, representing the best, rational outlook we can assemble on future conditions and the uncontrollable forces in the market, are laid out. “What-if” scenarios are drawn up and scrutinized. Sensitivity analysis is performed.
When we are sufficiently satisfied that we have applied our skill, knowledge and resources as best we can, we tee up the ball and take a swing. Our competitors likewise take their swing – it’s no easier for them, either.
Most times, the result will be “acceptable”. Even with experience, though, sometimes we’ll hit a poor shot. Yet, occasionally, everything come together magically, and the ball stops inches from the cup – and once in a great while may land inside it.
Sun Microsystems had the E10K server (acquired from SGI when it was unable to purchase all of the assets of Cray Computer) and Java (originally intended for TV set-top boxes). Apple had the iPod (sorry, Sony Walkman) then parlayed that into the iPhone and now the iPad. Likewise, Google and Facebook have turned promising products into game-changing, paradigm-shifting, runaway successes.
Each of these companies wanted – and planned for – their product to succeed. But none of them counted on the results that were achieved.
How did they get everything right? How do they repeat it?
As in golf, there are many things that must go right, all at the same time – more than can be reasonably managed. But, we do get better at understanding – and hence, managing – a few of those things.
Malcolm Gladwell’s excellent book, The Tipping Point, offers numerous examples of luck lending a helping hand. He puts a face on some of the forces that create luck, too. So does Chris Anderson’s The Long Tail, which illustrates how the internet, social networks and viral marketing have led to unexpected good fortune for those products that don’t make the best-seller list.
Good companies become students of those factors that could swing the advantage to their side. They experiment. They try. They take risk. They find something that works. Then they practice, practice, practice. Until they get it right.
Luck typically favors persistence and diligence. Those who stay in the game, pick themselves up by the bootstraps when things fail, and who keep swinging until they get it right are usually the ones whom luck favors.
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