Transcript:
Okay very good morning to everyone hope you’re well it’s Wednesday the 11th of September 2019 live from the desk here amplify trading in London I’m just having a quick recap firstly of this calendar because I think it really does start to encapsulate a little bit of where we are this morning but also what to expect from the day ahead and then really what is gearing up for Thursday which ultimately is one of the biggest days in in the calendar for this week so if you actually look at Wednesday today you don’t really have a great deal of information coming out overall you’ve got the u.s. PPI numbers there’s absolutely nothing of significance really coming out as eurozone or UK data and this is very much a wait-and-see for the big event which is of course the ECB interest rate and accompanying press conference which will get tomorrow we’ll go into that and the briefing much more detail on Thursday morning but you’ve also got out of the us the lights of well let’s just run through some of the highlights here you’ve got some Chinese data overnight trade balance this was tentatively scheduled at the weekends or see whether that has been confirmed eurozone industrial production will be quite important OPEC meeting commences in Abu Dhabi this is not one of their semi-annual ones in Vienna this is one of their more technical led meetings to make sure that they were deering to compliance levels but of course quite important given the new change of leadership at the all ministry in Saudi Arabia and interested to see how their relationship appears to be aligned or not with Russia then you’ve got the ECB then you’ve got US CPI as well and obviously still a key metric as to ascertain then the type of aggressiveness of how does your not the Fed are going to be next Wednesday on the on the 18th so I think that really kind of sums up the current state of play because just having a look across the charts at the moment things are relatively quiet there’s not really a great deal of massive breaking news for me to go into two main subjects I’m going to discuss the resignation of the National Security Advisor John Bolton in the u.s. last night and then also apples earnings which came or not earnings excuse me the the new conference that they held to unveil latest suite of products and how that impacted their stock risin and how we closed on Wall Street so overall European us dot futures I mean us a basically flat the dax is up a touch a little bit of resistance around the r1 on the daily pivot so far which was also the overnight asia-pacific high currency markets pretty quiet both major pairs are basically flat mimicking the dollar index and pretty similar in the US 10-year and gold so a fairly flat open I would say is kind of the description with a lack of real top-level macro drivers at the moment as the market perhaps waits for bigger signals to come from the next big central magnesian will get from Europe tomorrow but getting into a couple of headlines to get you up to speed if you weren’t aware already bringing up the crude chart firstly and and looking at a dip in price action that we saw yesterday late afternoon we moved from in Wi crude around fifty eight seventy five eighty all the way down to about fifty seven twenty eight so decent over dollar move and a pullback in oil you remember in the briefing yesterday we were talking about the continuation of the upward moves that we had seen in crude I mean just to put it into a little bit of context since what would be what Friday we’ve rallied from below 55 all the way up to nearly 59 so a pretty decent move and so a correction of sauce is probably warranted to just book some profits on those long as the catalyst certainly coming from the headline that Donald Trump the US president has al stood John Bolton after a dispute over negotiating with Taliban now what Trump was after here was he wanted to invite Taliban officials into Camp David for negotiations about the a truce if you like to push forward in Afghanistan in a positive fashion however John Bolton was against this they had a big fallout and then apparently that has led now to the president firing Bolton or Bolton’s point of view him resigning because his position was untenable at that point now interesting thing here a bit of background John Bolton is the third casualty of the National Security Adviser role to remember Michael Flynn lasted a couple of weeks before then it got found out that he had had inappropriate dealings with the Russians in a build-up to the u.s. presidential election in 2016 he has now pleaded guilty to withholding information to federal officials and he’s currently going through that process in the courts at the moment you then had McMaster was the next one but again he lasted about a year and now John Bolton has come and gone now the one thing about John Bolton to be aware of is that I think this move from Trump to get rid of him was kind of inevitable if anything I think Trump a little bit of perhaps misjudgment because he’s been very difficult for Trump to get a lot of domestic wins I guess the the corporate tax cut was the one major one he’s got under his belt but he’s failed on so many other internal policies the repeal of Obamacare the border wall the border wall whether from funding to the execution of that actual program the banning of the movement of certain Islamic states within the borders of North America and so on the one thing that he was while aiming to champion was some successes he could have had on the International on the foreign policy scene and obviously brokering things like the original Korean peace deal was quite a meaningful one and so on but the problem he had with John Bolton is that he is pretty much an uber hawk when it comes to foreign policy here’s a guy that was a big backer of the Iraq war he even went as far as saying that Cuba had WMDs before he is highly critical of North Korea he is so far down that that line that I think it was potentially just inevitable that this was going to happen because what Trump needs is someone who is gonna appear with a tough stance but not follow through with the complete and utter conviction that John Bolton would have had on these issues and hence then there’s confrontation because Trump just wants a political whim not actually to go down these routes to the degree I think that that mr. Bolton would have would have wanted so I guess the the read between the lines here is that for one Trump said he’s gonna nominate a replacement next week quite a lot of journalists and reports I’ve been reading last night were suggesting that he’s gonna find it pretty tough to fill that role given he’s already gone through three people in three years and all of the issues that are ongoing with the u.s. at the moment on the foreign policy front who’s gonna want to put their hand up for that role the other thing is he potentially is gonna have probably another yes-man I kind of as the press have quoted a mini-me to come in and just basically do the willing or the bidding of what the president wants and again who wants to really take that take that position it’s going to get filled we’ll see the deputy has stepped in in the interim period but yeah pull back in oil prices absolutely on the Fast Money move I mean if you were Angela enough to get hold of some of that obviously the removal of one of the ardent Hawks for foreign policy in the US administration means that there’s a lesser likelihood of confrontation with people like Iran Iraq just generally on the global front and so that needs to have some of that risk premium priced out of oil however there’s of course lots of other things that are driving oil prices at the moment from the trade war to the OPEC supply agreement which will be looking for an update tomorrow so it’ll be a pullback but not a huge amount as I said a dollar twenty five dollar fifty move and now we’ve just gravitated towards pivot on the daily level so I think that story’s kind of done and dusted now I don’t I wouldn’t expect it to continue to move the price going forward for the rest of the session the other news story of course that came out last night yesterday evening before the clothes and Apple shares were kind of it was warmly received in terms of the announcement where Apple unveiled a new suite of products typically this being their regular where they come out with the new updated iPhones and we’re now on the iPhone 11 they also released a new series 5 watch but the thing that people were talking about the most and what really underpins the rise in their share price was the pricing model the aggressiveness of the device and services pricing so with the devices the iPhone 11 starts at 699 bucks that’s down from the XRS $750 price that we had last year they have also released a kind of suite of pro models which are slightly more expensive the top-end going for just over a thousand bucks but the main staple kind of flagship phone under that number 11 is cheaper and I think that’s a good learning lesson and an adaptation of the strategy from Apple because I really do think that with the iPhone 10 being such a disappointment and although that was to a certain degree a lack of innovation in the phone in itself also increased competition for an improvement in other models particularly some of the Chinese firms but also the price point it was almost like we’ve gone with hit and almost gone over that threshold that the consumer was willing to pay for an actual smartphone and so this this seems like like a like a good move from them the market seemed to have agreed the iPhone eight from 2017 now costs just four hundred and fifty bucks that’s had another hundred and fifty dollar price cut and the other thing here of course is about the diversification of their revenue streams as we know if we cycle through a couple of these graphics this is a look at their market share over the period of the last five years and as you can see their market share tends to kind of spike whenever they unveil the new series of the phone and and it falls off of course you can see we’ve come back down to the lowest point that we’ve been in many years at the moment and that’s because as I said their market shares being whittled down by continuous improvements of their rivals I actually think from a technology point of view there’s not actually a great deal that the iPhone does better than the other phones but that’s not really why people buy an iPhone people buy an iPhone typically because of the only the operating system and its simplicity but also because it’s it’s viewed as a premium product so what’s quite interesting here is that by offering these more now low-cost competitive models are now Apple looking to gobble up some of that market or is this just purely to try and maintain some of its market share the other thing of course this this graphic is quite interesting this is because Apple last night Tim Cook unveiled a four dollar ninety nine monthly cost of Apple’s upcoming TV plus video streaming service now that does undercut the likes of Netflix of Disney as Amazon Prime and so this as well as has been seen as quite a strong move obviously Apple being more new to the space but coming in with some real firepower potentially with the amount of capital they could throw at this service and they definitely in this quest that I Versa file way from that singularity from focus on the phone in terms of a revenue generator this will be key for that model into pushing into the service sector and as you can see here this is looking in the white line is Netflix daily percentage change on the session and they fell over three percent in yesterday’s session Disney were down over two percent and remember Apple work shares were moving in the opposite direction as this was coming out so looking to really spice things up in that live streaming and TV subscription model space so yeah that was that was Apple has that translated into much for the overall charts and sentiment not really I would say comparative two years gone by their products are hardly setting the world on fire these days they haven’t done it for a number of years but again I think what’s very interesting here is the re app Allah shaking things up with their pricing strategy which i think is the beginning of potentially selling or will be continued out of necessity not out of choice if anything over the long term but it should be a benefit to the firm overall final thing for news perspective to talk about is we had the API all Infantry’s last night this of course is the pre new to the the do e numbers will get this afternoon and as you can see here we had a very large drawdown way larger than expected in the headline crude figure drawdown of seven and a quarter million expectations were excuse me for a drawdown of just 2.8 million so again when we talk about the price of oil we had that pull back on the resignation of John Bolton but then we’ve had a recovery and you can see where the recovery came so if there was kind of two phases to this move led by the fundamental catalysts the downside move on the on the John Bolton news and then the rally came which was really this move here where we’ve now gone into this range-bound price action which came after the numbers last night from the API Cushing was a draw of 1.4 million a little bit deeper than expected helping that narrative gasoline likewise was a draw of four and a half million the largest drawdown we’ve had since April of this year and distillers was a build of 600,000 so definitely on the balance more bullish support for crude prices as mentioned with a calendar finally it’s very quiet this morning there’s not really a great deal going on certainly out of UK and Europe there’s absolutely nothing happening and later on in the afternoon you get PPI is the kind of lead up into the u.s. CPI which we’ll get tomorrow all infantry data at 3:30 and that’s about it so unless you’re trading fixed income futures where you’ve got the ten-year auction which will be then followed by the 30-year from the US having had the three-year no auction yesterday otherwise that’s it for the moment okay let me hand you over to Sam I wish you a good day ahead I’ll let him go over some of the setup so that he’s the king up from a technical perspective thanks very much guys yeah good morning Weber a quick look over there some of the currency pairs to start off with bringing the pound to to the picture here and Seminole look a 60-minute and having a start with the trend line from the the low that we had the course on the the further September that multi-year low let’s bring this nice in and just have a look at this this trend line has broken the early hours this morning yes you’ve got those there’s free real test the third the ninth and the temp so the break of that and and also you can just see this morning it’s on to 15-minute just that well it’s been respected on the retest of that level so we already know that people are looking at this this trend line so if we were to push to the upside obviously keep an eye on that really starting on the the further September coming through there last few sessions you know despite that that trend line break have been relatively range-bound we just put a rectangle in in that prior section from that from the high of the 930 obviously below yesterday you can see this one marking out r1 and just below the s1 from today’s session so well if having that on but I think that the main point here to make is that that trend line really respected quite well just below where we’re trading obviously a key support area from since really midday yesterday you can see we’ve already had one two three perhaps look for that fourth test of that around 120 342 and the futures so that could be an area where if that was to break we get that drift lower if it’s to hold we might get another test so that trend line which has been you know knocking once twice three times already to see what happens again would be quite interesting so those would be the level certainly short a term I’ll be focusing on for the pound euro if I put this back onto a 60 minute you can just see how and just make it a bit smaller you can see we’re really getting squeezed here in the Euro of the last couple of days that spike we had on the fifth to the upside and then from the knife you can see this how well this has been squeezed from both directions and we’re actually literally just testing that lower part now so worth keeping an eye on there obviously as we were saying yesterday 24 hours ago how it’s not too surprising to be contained within this ahead of the ECB of course but worth keeping you know what happens really now actually the dollar that’s trying to break out its range of the the last few hours and obviously keeping like what happens here if it closes the half hour below hey thought you might get to a further push down but you can already see a couple of times it’s attempted to break through it we’re not much luck but you can see here euro getting squeezed really from both directions and ahead of the ECB no harming sort of staying out of that unless we were to get a big push big push was he dollar interesting I guess he’d and I’m going to take the the pivots off obviously helps by the fact the the china-us situation as has got better and I think there could be a decent short coming here for the Aussie the high that we had yesterday and not too far away from what was has been a pretty key level in previous trade if we just mark up these lows here from the 21st of June and the 9th 10th of July before we had that break down to the back end just before August we’re gonna just see what happens around there as well so 69 21 on the on the futures yeah we’re still 50 ticks away but that would be certainly an area I’d be quite interested in to look for medium-term short we did spike higher yesterday and then just found a bit of resistance you have another area of interest I guess at 68 92 but was he got a certainly one my radar to look for a move to the downside again after being on such a strong run the yen moving over just to wrap up the currency as you can see here the notice that the low that we made yesterday we’ve got another key area just below there that you’d be aware of and then also these these hires from the 28th and 30th before we broke through on the 1st of August and then even looking I put these the pivots back on for today you can just see what’s happened each time we kind of break through and alo we come back retest and again we made this low here we come back we retest we then broke through this low and we haven’t quite come back I guess to properly retest it like these previous guys that doing so so the keeping a watch on what happens around that area just below the pivot today and well basically what was the low you want to be looking at the lower yesterday morning asian session so I’d had that marked up just the way this this pair has been moving looks to act as a pretty good resistance into the afternoon session as well SP yesterday post cash open we we got a brief move lower before recovery into the back end of the session and here looking again there to four you can see unless we really get a retest of that 2950 area it seems a bit no-man’s land between this and and 3000 which you can see obviously being the round number but also an area we broke down on the the last couple of days of July so it’d be interesting what alcohols happens on a retest survivor 3000 or 29:45 2950 but it seems just a bit choppy bit range-bound in those areas you can see s2 providing quite good support and obviously helps my Apple you know into the clothes that might give drift higher for me personally I’ll be you know waiting to see what happens for a bigger move around three thousand and twenty nine forty five just maybe more intraday you can see we’re just getting a test of the deferred Woodford test of this trendline from yesterday’s low so from an intraday perspective sure it’s worth keeping an eye on and today’s r1 matching up at the high of the month as well so you’ve got a couple of obviously key points to have marked up more intraday but the the main move I’d expect 2945 or three thousand to ignite things gold fifteen hundred trading at the moment just a touch below a couple of cent obviously after its big move has come down a fair bit the high on the futures up a 1566 haven’t quite made that spike lower that we had on the thirteen so that’s an area to to keep an eye on this this drift lower you can see as well probably similar to that S&P and the trend line from those lows were just testing it now of course you want to see what happens here and where we get confirmed the third test or not but certainly the way gold can move just like it did the previous or a couple of previous sessions ago on the break of those trends worth keeping a knife what happens around that area I think for gold and certainly still there’s better markets to focus on for now it does seem pretty you know it’s just consolidating after that move lower and relatively choppy we’ve you know waiting for these little patterns to take place and you can see again last night this is more eight o’clock helped by obviously stocks going higher but this is when you get those real nice moves clean moves on the brakes of these patterns and that would be probably how I’d be looking to to trade gold later on oil dr we coming out later API you can see and that moved towards that pivot which is acted as pretty strong resistance and 58 bucks which has been a key level over the last well I guess you could say since time we talking here 10:30 it’s not far over 24 hours that’s a key level does it just be a bit careful above the pivot because you do have a a breakdown area eight cent above so more of a zone fifty and where the pivot 258 o paid and then to the downside we could argue this little range could be expected to hold in the morning folks and then ninety five to fifty seven sixty five daily chart for oil you can see you know we’re talking yesterday how it’s kind of broken out of that trend iron from those hives used to quit the trend on so we got that confirmed breaker you didn’t quite get the retest yesterday but even though it was slightly choppy on on the 5th of September still some another cab marked up as well we did yesterday as well of course get a decent and up test on that very first of July high so yes the the fundamental reason oil came down was to do revolting but also really strong technical resistance up at that 31st of July and we’re perhaps now just waiting to see what happens between those two levels retested the trendline and up in that 31st high as well any questions obviously please do let us know the Baxters trading on the high at the moment to work keeping an eye on the euro attempting to break out of that bottom trendline and oil coming down a touch from what has been a key resistance for the last part of the session any questions please do let us know but I hope you’ll have a good trading day
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